Gestetner Updates

It would certainly be sweet for Republicans to pick up eight Senate seats, or perhaps ten seats and with it capture the Majority while dumping Harry Reid. But winning $1 Million instead of $2 Million is no reason for Republican to kvetch, and for Democrats to spin.

Here is some context to republicans winning “only” six Senate Seats:

Midterm Contest:

• The average midterm Senate seat pick up in the last SIXTY years – since and including 1950 – is 4.31 seats.
• Only in three of the above sixteen midterms, did one party pickup more than six seats (Repubs eight in 1994; Dems eight in 1986, and Dems sixteen in 1958).
• In eleven of the above midterms, the pickup was 4 or less, mostly 3 to non pickups at all.
• In the above three “strong” Senate years, the House pick-ups were 54, five, and 49. This year pick-up was 60+.

Presidential Elections Years Context:

• The average Senate Seat pick up in the fifteen Presidential Election years since 1952, is 3.01.
• In eleven of the above fifteen presidential years, the pickup was two to non seats at all.
• Only in two of the above fifteen elections, did Senate pickups exceeded this week’s Republican gains: eight in 2008, and twelve in 1980.
• In the two “strong” Senate Presidential Years, the House seats pickup were only 34 and 21.

ALL Elections Years Context since 1950:

• The average Senate seat pick-up in all of the last 29 Congressional Elections – since and including 1950 – is 5.34.
• In only five of the 29 Congressional Elections since 1950, were the Senate pick-up more than six (2008, 1994, 1986, 1980 and 1958 ).
• In twenty of the 29 Congressional elections since 1950, the pick-ups were three to non seats at all.
• In the “Strong Senate” years (meaning years when more than six seats flipped), the House gains were 54, 34, 5, 54, and 21. (1958, 1980, 1986, 1994 and 2008, respectively).    

So my friends on the Right, you had a good year. And my friends on the Left stop spinning