My Following article appears in the Friday June 17, 2010 print and online edition of/ www.Homida.com
Here are the raw numbers: The NY State Senate has 62 seats. Republicans have thirty two, and the Democrats together with the “Independent Democrats” hold thirty. You need 32 votes to pass a bill. As of now, twenty nine of the thirty Democrats and two Republicans are in favor of the Marriage Bill presented by the Governor this week. Pro-Bill forces are looking for one more vote to secure that it passes the upper chamber.
One of the Democrats in favor of the bill is State Senator David Carlucci who represents Rockland County and a section of Orange County as Senate District 38. Last November, he won 51,515 votes versus Rockland County Republican Scott Vanderhoef who received 45,605 votes. This is a difference of less than 6,000 votes, which is a difference of less than 3,000 if some Carlucci voters went the other way.
Enter the Orthodox Jewish/Hasidic Vote of Rockland County:
During that election, approximately 7,200 Jewish voters in Rockland participated; most of them voted for Vanderhoef. In the recently-held elections for the School Board of East Ramapo Central School District – which covers only parts of Rockland County – the Orthodox Jewish/Hasidic turnout was approximately 10,000 voters. Put this ever-growing voting base to work against Carlucci in 2012 and he has a problem on his hand.
Back in November 2010, many people didn’t vote at all and some voted for Carlucci because 1) Vanderhoef and some other local Republican leaders took things for granted. They didn’t spend the real energy and effort to get all potential (Jewish) votes. 2) Some wanted Vanderhoef to stay in Rockland and continue with his leadership in the County. 3) Many, mostly non-Jewish, Republicans didn’t vote for Vanderhoef because of rumors that the County Legislator will appoint a Democrat, Town Supervisor Christopher St. Lawrence as County Executive; few of them wanted the Republicans to lose the Executive seat. 4) Unions and other Pro-Carlucci forces worked to their max to get him elected, yet despite the first three factors he still had only a slim win.
As of this moment, Carlucci does not have much good will within the 10,000-plus voter-strong Orthodox Jewish/Hasidic community of his district. Based on my conversations the last two days with some community leaders, activists and voters in the above community, Carlucci is certainly not going in the right direction with his planned yes vote on the Marriage Bill.
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