Public Policy Polling asked voters in NY9 how important a few issues such as SSM and Israel are in their decision how to vote in Tuesday’s election. Voters had the option of picking all issues, and Israel was of course important to Jews and others too. (Heck. My brother and his family live in an area in Israel where he evacuates a few times a year due to rockets. This is important to me despite the fact that I once did a marketing project for TTJ, an anti-Israeli group…).
On the other hand, the Siena poll a few days earlier asked people to pick just one main issue that mostly shaped their opinion how to vote: Only seven percent in a district where Jews are thirty percent picked Israel, compared to economic/entitlement issues that was picked by a combined sixty percent respondents. A candidate’s party line was picked by eighteen percent voters! This affirms what I wrote three months ago (before I did the TTJ work…) that to Jews in America, it is not Israel, Israel and Israel all day.
Is Israel an issue? Sure, and it may well be the difference between the winning or losing margin in this specific contest. However, had Democrat David Weprin not ticked off many Jewish voters and vocal activists with his strong support for SSM, and had the economy been on better footing, Republican Bob Turner would be trailing, not leading in the polls. After all, only sixteen percent of NY9 Independents in the PPP poll approve of Obama’s work overall. How much of that is Israel?
The general point here is, if a candidate thinks he/she can capture the hearts of (Orthodox) Jewish voters in swing states/districts by running with Israel while not having a strong appeal on domestic issues, and/or while the other party wins hands-down issues closer to home, then the first candidate is strongly mistaken! In fact, as I noted a few days ago, some statewide 2010 GOP’ers won approximately sixty percent of New York State Assembly District 48, which is mostly Jewish and part of it is in NY9.The candidates did so despite not making Israel (much of) an issue. all this should be the largest take away from the NY9 polling in the context of the Jewish voters: Yes, Obama’s weakness on Israel sure helps Turner, but economic and entitlement issues combined were picked by 8.5 times more NY9 voters than was Israel, and pure partisanship was picked 2.5 times more than Israel! Had Obama and Weprin been stronger on the first, Mr. Turner could have been booking now his trip to Israel; not potentially to Washington.
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