The Note Explains: Of the 767,383 registered voters in New Hampshire, 312,621 are registered as “undeclared,” or roughly 41 percent of the total registered voting population, a larger percentage than both Republicans (30 percent) and Democrats (29 percent). Historically, these voters have contributed in large blocks to the Republican party primary. According to past exit polls, voters who identified as being “independent” have never accounted for less than 30 percent of the total voter turnout in the GOP primary in the past 20 years.
The group hasn’t always voted in line with the Republican Party. In 1992 they split even for incumbent President George H.W. Bush and his primary challenger, Pat Buchanan, at 48 percent each. In 1996 they split evenly again- this time for Pat Buchanan and then Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander, 27 percent each. Bob Dole, who eventually went on to win his party’s nomination that year, lagged behind with 18 percent of the independent vote.
In 2000 Independent voters overwhelmingly supported John McCain, with 62 percent among voters identifying with this group. McCain still received the majority of votes from the independent sector in 2008, but his margin of victory was smaller — he received 38 percent of the vote, while Mitt Romney received 30 percent.
