Let’s go through the usual list:
1) Raise enough money? Perry raised $17M in Q3 of last year; which was more than anyone else at the time.
2) Work like a dog in one state for a year as Rick Santorum did in Iowa? Well, he had only 5% in the polls up until ten days before the vote, which means the 25% he had on election night was momentum driven by forces that pushed other candidates to the same levels, only for Santorum the luck was that he had a vote at the right moment to cash in on the rise. If the 25% he won on election night was a result of his “hard work,” then he should have risen slowly over the year, but instead he was flat until ten days before the vote. Besides, how did hard work pay off for Jon Huntsman in New Hampshire? Yeah. O, I forgot…
3) Have a good organization? Well, Santorum won 25% in Iowa (same strong level as Mitt Romney) without much of an organization nor with much money either.
4) Perhaps one needs solid TV and interne ads to gain support. Right? Well, Perry has the most viewed and most popular ads than any candidate in the game. Indeed, some views (such as the War on Religion ad) came from foes, but many came from religious people, yet how did it help Perry?
5) I guess a person needs a good message. Correct? Well, Romney and Newt Gingrich are now on top. Can anyone tell me what message either of the two have?
6) Ok, perhaps one needs a record of winning elections to prove that he can win against Obama… Em, Rick Perry never lost an election until stepping into the presidential race, while Mitt Romney lost or backed out of elections right and left.
7) Let me try it one more time: What one needs in these economic times is a proven record to balance budgets; create jobs and energy for this country while being in office, such as Rick Perry; the Governor of the second largest state and the leader of the world’s thirteenth largest economy. Right? That worked for him very well indeed.
What we are left is that to win an election one largely needs to have oratorical skills to spin and say whatever it takes to win the race. This neither is a guarantee. In 2008 President Obama and VP Joe Biden each made more mistakes in one week than did Palin in a month, but somehow Palin was perceived as the clown and Obama as the greatest communicator to ever grace an election field.
Yes, one can make the argument that Mitt Romney has the money, organization, good debate skills, record of jobs and no baggage as the reason why he is on top. But if indeed so, why did he have a ceiling of 25% in national and state polls all this time? He should have gained support of at least half the GOP a year ago! Why is a baggage-filled, loose cannon Newt at all a threat to Romney’s South Carolina dreams?
All in all, a share of good luck and hoping that the other candidates will self destruct is apparently more important than anything else in a political contest.
