
- The smirk of a shrewd tactician
This was the shortest election season in the history of Israel. Last week Monday, amid facing problematic difficulties in operating as a stable government, and the failure to come to an agreement with the Ultra-Orthodox parties and coalition partners on a national service bill, replacing the Tal-Law, PM Netanyahu called for early Knesset elections, in order to restore government stability, and the prevent any of the smaller parties to threaten to leave and break the coalition.
Riding high in the polls, the motive to call for early elections was viewed as an attempt of Netanyahu to take advantage of his popularity and get a renewed mandate, if according to some polls Obama is elected to a second term.
To Run the Government: In order to serve as Prime Minister, you need to have a majority – sixty one of the 120 seats in the Parliament (aka Knesset). Obviously, over the past decades, no party won enough seats, so the government operates as a coalition of various parties.
The Government Until Now Comprised of 67 Seats: Bibi’s Likud 27; Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu 15; Shas 11, Barak 5, United Torah Judaism 5, Jewish Home 4.
What Could Have Been: Because the Ultra religious parties such as Shas and UTJ are not happy with Bibi’s approach to the Alternative Tal Law, they could have threatened to leave the coalition and over throw the government. On the other hand, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman actually threatened to leave if he does not get what he wants on this issue. To avoid being pulled from all sides to all sides, the PM called for early elections, and with polls showing him gaining more seats on the backs of others, he had the upper hand.
What Happened Now: Shaul Mofaz, the leader of Kadima, fearing of losing many seats and lose the chance of even become relevant in a future government, offered to join Bibi’s coalition and negotiated a deal to form a unity government. Thus, giving Netanyahu a strong NINTY FIVE seat majority – the largest coalition in Israel’s history. Now even if Shas, UTJ decide to leave the coalition, Bibi will still remain in power with a stronger and larger government, since Kadima is now on board.
What it means for Iran (and Obama): Well… Bibi is now stronger than ever.