According to a Rassmusen Poll out Thursday, NY Senator Gillibrand gets 53% of Likely Voters, vs. only 34% who support her opponent Joe DioGuardi.
Rassmusen found that Gillibrand is backed by 79% of Democrats, and DioGuardi by only 66% Republicans. The candidates run even among Independent voters.
But…
- If we consider that Democratic turnout will be cooled off in NY compared to two years ago, while Republicans will turnout in stronger numbers…
- if we consider that a Republican who is MAD AS HELL to go vote, will very unlikely NOT circle the name DioGuardi or any Republican who is running state-wide…
- If we consider that Independents in NY are NOT happy with Democrats, and the only reason they are split in the poll is due to DioGuardi’s low name recognition, yet at the voting machines less of them will vote for the Democrat…
- if we consider that undecided or those who want “other candidates” (a total of 14-points in this poll), break in large part for the challenger…
If we consider all this, it is reasonable to say that Gillibrand is still in the lead. However, not by anything close to the 19-points that the poll gives her.
UPDATE: Thirty-one percent (31%) in the Rasmussen Poll say economic conditions in the country are getting better. 46% say they are getting worse. 84% of voters who say the economy is improving support Gillibrand. 53% of those who say the economy is worsening back the Republican.
In Real Numbers it means, Gillibrand gets 26% of Likely Voters, and DioGuardi gets 24%, while the rest don’t have an opinion.
Ok, I know it comes across weird, but using the Economy Getting Better/Worse sections of the poll, illustrates again that while Gillibrand has a lead, it is certainly not a huge lead.
UPDATE: Thirty-one percent (31%) in the Rasmussen Poll say economic conditions in the country are getting better. 46% say they are getting worse. 84% of voters who say the economy is improving support Gillibrand. 53% of those who say the economy is worsening back the Republican.
In Real Numbers it means, Gillibrand gets 26% of Likely Voters, and DioGuardi gets 24%, while the other half of voters in NY don’t have an opinion.
Ok, I know it comes across weird, but using the Economy Getting Better/Worse sections of the poll, illustrates again that while Gillibrand has a lead, it is certainly not a huge lead.