From the National Journal: A new ABC-Washington Post poll shows rising numbers for President Obama. The man presiding over a nearly imperceptible recovery from the Great Recession is now at 49 percent job approval.

That’s substantially higher than Obama’s career low of 42 percent in the same poll in October, and better than George W. Bush’s 47 percent three months before he defeated John Kerry in 2004. It’s also more than twice as high as the 20 percent approval rating the poll found for Republicans in Congress.

The Republican candidates for president constantly depict Obama as  hapless, weak and out of his depth. But in this poll he is winning some  key political arguments. People trust him over congressional Republicans to protect the middle class (50 percent to 35 percent) and handle taxes (46 percent to 41 percent), and he’s running even with the GOP on jobs  and the economy.

Suffolk University Reports: Newt Gingrich is moving up in New Hampshire, but is still far behind front-runner Mitt Romney who, with 41 percent of likely voters in his camp, is holding the line with the GOP field in the Granite state, according to a Suffolk University/7NEWS (WHDH TV) poll of likely voters in New Hampshire’s GOP presidential primary.

Romney (41 percent) and Ron Paul (14 percent) maintained the same levels of support they had in the Suffolk University poll conducted in September, while Newt Gingrich jumped from 4 percent to 14 percent. All other candidates were in single digits, including Jon Huntsman (9 percent), Herman Cain (8 percent), Rick Santorum (3 percent), Rick Perry (2 percent) and Michele Bachmann (1 percent).

Nine percent of likely GOP primary voters are undecided in New Hampshire, and more than half are somewhat (43 percent) or very (9 percent) likely to change their minds before the Primary.

NJ.Com Reports: A Quinnipiac University poll released this morning shows 56 percent of Garden State registered voters approve of the governor, while 38 percent disapprove. That’s a statistically insignificant change from last month, when 58 percent approved and 38 percent disapproved.

“Gov. Christopher Christie got a big bump in his job approval last month after he told New Jersey voters they were stuck with him because he wasn’t running for president,” said poll director Maurice Carroll. “Whether it’s his handling of the October snowstorm or just momentum, he’s still flying high.  Women don’t like him as much as men, but his one-time huge gender gap has shrunk.”

Christie’s popularity didn’t translate into gains in the state Legislature in last week’s election.

By a 47 percent to 32 percent margin, Republicans felt he worked hard enough. But among all voters, 46 percent felt the lack of gains could mean trouble for his reelection campaign in 2013, while 48 percent think it won’t matter.

Voters are also split on whether they think Christie will have a harder time dealing with the Democrat-controlled Legislature, which gained one seat last week, due to the results.

As Christie’s ratings stay the same, President Obama’s are on the rise. Voters are split 48 percent to 48 percent on whether they approve or disapprove of him.

A Reuters/Ipsos Poll says that 31% of registered Republicans believe Perry should drop out of the race, but 52% felt he should stay in. Among those polled, 37% of Republicans thought Cain should leave the race.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll has Romney in the lead with 28% saying they would vote for him. Perry was fourth with the support of 12%, while Cain was second at 20% and Gingrich third at 16%.

The Texas governor once sat atop national polls and led the money race during  the most recent reporting quarter, but a series of stumbles in the debates has  eaten into his backing. His fundraising has slowed significantly, sources close  to his campaign say.

Perry’s campaign went into damage control overdrive on Thursday, putting the governor front and center on news shows and allowing him to mock himself in an appearance on comedian David Letterman’s late-night talk show.

The online survey was taken among 461 registered Republican voters on Thursday and Friday.

(Report by Reuters)

Many news sites (such as this, this and this) are reporting today with great fanfare a new CNN Poll that 43% think things in the United States are going well, versus 56% who say things are bad. The ‘great’ news is that the gap between both numbers narrowed rapidly from just a month ago, and it is the best number since April 2007.

If we put this in the correct perspective, it means that ever since the Democrats took control of Capital Hill four years ago, things started going downhill in the eyes of the American people. In fact, in early January 2007, the numbers were practically flipped with 57% saying things are (still…) going well in this country; yet three months later, by April, this number was already in the low forties. The number drifted lower ever since, despite President Obama showing up with all his ‘job-creating’ policies. Only recently, when pro-business, pro-workers, pro-good health care forces were elected to – and took some control of – Washington, did this poll question become less negative.

Regardless the above poll, a lot work is still needed before vast majorities of Americans will actually see – not just think… — that things in this country are going well again.

This Post was first at American Thinker Blog: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2011/01/obamas_polling_surge.html

Contact: yossi@yossigestetner.com

CNN is out with a new poll (January 18) that 53% approve of President Obama’s work.

In its report regarding this poll, CNN writes that “Obama’s 53 percent approval rating at the start of his third year in office is six points better than Bill Clinton’s at the same time in his presidency and 16 points better than Ronald Reagan’s figure in January of 1983.” CNN however forgets to mention that Obama’s 53% is five points lower than the 58% approval rating that President George W. Bush had approximately the same time of his presidency in a CNN Poll released mid January 2003.

Sure CNN ‘forgot’ about Bush because mentioning it would undermine the narrative that Obama is better and more powerful than his predecessors. (If CNN wants to amend the report, so be it. But I already have a screen shot of their partisan report.)

contact: yossi@yossigestetner.com

Rasmussen’s Presidential Approval Index (PAI) of today Sunday is -14, which means there are fourteen percent more people who strongly disapprove of Obama’s work than those who strongly approve of the President’s work. Today’s numbers are based on polling of the last three days, i.e., the three days following the Tucson speech of Wednesday evening.

Obama’s  minus fourteen percent in today’s ( Sunday) Rasmussen Presidential Approval Index is worse than yesterday’s -12, following Friday’s -13. The last PAI number based on pre-Tucson speech surveys was Thursday’s -11. This shows that Obama is actually doing worse following his speech. In the four days following the shooting yet before speech, Obama’s PAI went back and forth between minus- twelve, thirteen, to minus- thirteen, twelve. This is interesting considering that in the final two pre-shooting numbers of more than a week ago, Obama got a minus eleven.

Bottom Line: The shooting, as of today Sunday has not enhanced Obama’s numbers; not even by a dime. It in fact relapsed, according to Rasmussen.

Yesterday I listed here many polls that show the public does not agree with media and Lib talking points surrounding the shooting.

THE shooting in Arizona took place a week ago, which gave some Democrats an opening to attach to it whatever they have on their agenda: from restricting Free Speech, to cutting back Gun Rights, and ended with continually destroying Sarah Palin. But the polling, as of now, is bad news for Democrats and their liberal talking points:

ü  A CBS News Poll shows that 57% surveyed, including 57% Independents, do not associate political rhetoric with the shooting.  This flies in the microphones and cameras of Leftist commentators who were busy blaming rhetoric on the shooting.

ü  A Rasmussen Poll released Thursday, January 13, 2010, writes that 62% survey think that stricter gun rules would not have avoided the Arizona shooting, and 58% say so in the above CBS Poll.

ü  56% in the above Rasmussen poll say that the United States does not need stricter gun laws.

ü  Only fifteen percent, again: only 15%, in a Quinnipiac Poll taken January 10-11, say that Overheated Political Rhetoric was a main reason for the Arizona Shooting, and only 9% say lax gun laws was the main reason. IN FACT, 40% in this poll say this shooting could not have been prevented!

ü  36% in the above poll say that liberals are more responsible for heated political rhetoric, versus 32% who say Conservatives are more responsible.

Encouraging about these polling numbers is, that the American public can read and see news stories for what they are, regardless what the main stream media tries to propel by their ever dwindling influence.

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A CBS poll out today morning says that 57% surveyed, including 56% of independents, don’t think that heated political rhetoric is connected to the shooting in Arizona.

Anyone who listened to the news in the last three days, is aware that media and press members, up and down the chain, were trying to pin the attack on Palin, Limbaugh and others of the Right, despite the fact that the shooter was a 9/11 Truther; the only “Favored” clip on his YouTube channel was the burning of an American flag, and he was an Atheist. But talk show and the internet had a major push back to the media.

Results? The above Poll!

In fact, CBS likely asked their question in the first place, likely with the hopes that it will show that most Americans DO think that Heated Political Rhetoric is to blame for the shooting. But sadly to CBS, whose local NY Radio was of the many who pushed Saturday the anti-Palin agenda , the poll shows that only 32% think the political rhetoric drove the guy.

Furthermore, CBS didn’t report how many of the 32% blame the heated rhetoric of the Left or of the Right. Can it be… that a large percent of the 32% don’t even blame the Right, and therefore CBS didn’t release this info?

I am just asking…

The headline number is that NY Senator Gillibrand gets 55% of Likely Voters and her opponent DioGuardi gets 40 percent. However, consider the following:

• The poll’s margin of error is 5 percent; not the 3 percent seen in most polls.
• Between Registered Voters (RV), Gillibrand receives 55 percent – as in the Likely Voters (LV) Class. This is strange, since the RV class in NY favors Dems by a nice few percentage points than do the LV class. Here however, the RV and LV criteria stand the same for Gillibrand, which leads me to believe that Gillibrand is actually below 50 in the LV class.
• Gillibrand in this poll – as in most polls of recent weeks – does not break the 55% mark, which is enough to win, yet between a potential strong Republican turn-out and a poll’s margin of error; this may place her again below fifty.

Conclusion: Gillibrand is indeed in the lead, but likely at 48-49 percent of the vote, and DioGuardi is likely at 44-45 percent. This gives Gillibrand a 3-5 point lead over DioGuardi, Not the 15-point headline number lead of the Marist Poll. Her 3-5 lead is enough to beat Mr. DioGuardi. However, a strong Republican showing on Election Day can make this anyone’s race.

Note: in a post here a week ago on my blog, I wrote that Gillibrand is likely at the 47-48 range and DioGuardi at the 42-43 range, which gave Gillibrand a 4-6 point lead. However her lead now is in the 3-5 range, with a real chance for DioGuardi to upset this on Election Day.

Note: While I am retained by Mr. DioGuardi for  PR/Outreach work in the Orthodox Jewish and Hasidic Communities, this analysis is NOT on behalf Mr. DioGuardi or his team.

According to a Rassmusen Poll out Thursday, NY Senator Gillibrand gets 53% of Likely Voters, vs. only 34% who support her opponent Joe DioGuardi.

Rassmusen found that Gillibrand is backed by 79% of Democrats, and DioGuardi by only 66% Republicans. The candidates run even among Independent voters.

But…

- If we consider that Democratic turnout will be cooled off in NY compared to two years ago, while Republicans will turnout in stronger numbers…

- if we consider that a Republican who is MAD AS HELL to go vote, will very unlikely NOT circle the name DioGuardi or any Republican who is running state-wide…

- If we consider that Independents in NY are NOT happy with Democrats, and the only reason they are split in the poll is due to DioGuardi’s low name recognition, yet at the voting machines less of them will vote for the Democrat…

- if we consider that undecided or those who want “other candidates” (a total of 14-points in this poll), break in large part for the challenger…

If we consider all this, it is reasonable to say that Gillibrand is still in the lead. However, not by anything close to the 19-points that the poll gives her.

UPDATE: Thirty-one percent (31%) in the Rasmussen Poll say economic conditions in the country are getting better. 46% say they are getting worse. 84% of voters who say the economy is improving support Gillibrand. 53% of those who say the economy is worsening back the Republican.

In Real Numbers it means, Gillibrand gets 26% of Likely Voters, and DioGuardi gets 24%, while the rest don’t have an opinion.

Ok, I know it comes across weird, but using the Economy Getting Better/Worse sections of the poll, illustrates again that while Gillibrand has a lead, it is certainly not a huge lead. 

UPDATE: Thirty-one percent (31%) in the Rasmussen Poll say economic conditions in the country are getting better. 46% say they are getting worse. 84% of voters who say the economy is improving support Gillibrand. 53% of those who say the economy is worsening back the Republican.

In Real Numbers it means, Gillibrand gets 26% of Likely Voters, and DioGuardi gets 24%, while the other half of voters in NY don’t have an opinion.

Ok, I know it comes across weird, but using the Economy Getting Better/Worse sections of the poll, illustrates again that while Gillibrand has a lead, it is certainly not a huge lead.

Get this from a CBS Online Poll out this morning of Obama voters:  only 2/3 of them will vote for a Democrat this November. Well, 2/3 of Obama’s 61% he got in NY, leaves Gillibrand with only 40% of the vote. Be it a few points up, or a few points down. The bottom line is, it backs what I wrote in my previous post early morning that Gillibrand does NOT have a high-flying 25 Poll lead, as the NYT poll suggests.

As I pointed out yesterday, the New York Times Poll showing NY Governor hopeful Cuomo with a 35 point lead over Republican Paladino is a heavy load of crap. But now the NYT is out with a fresh load of junk. This time it shows Senator Gillibrand getting 50% of Likely Voters, and DioGuardi getting only 25%.

This 25% gap is a fantasy figure. Here is why:

A)      As I pointed out yesterday, only 26% respondents in the poll say they voted for McCain in 2008, when in fact McCain received 36% of the NY vote two years ago. Why did the Times under-sample the Republican vote compared to two years ago, especially in an election where Republicans are more enthusiastic to vote than two years ago?

B)      48% respondents said they would vote for the Democrat on the ticket, versus 31% who will vote Republican.  This is a 17 point lead. With Gillibrand and DioGuardi not known well in the state, we may conclude that voters will go with party line – rather than the candidate’s name. In this case, the Democrats have a 17 point lead.

C)      If you bring up Republican voting participation in this poll to the actual 2008 McCain percentage, and if alittle more than half of them vote Republican, the above 48-31 number shrinks to 48-36. This is a twelve-point lead for the Democrats.

D)     If you add even more Republicans to the poll to reflect how fired-up they are compared to two years ago, then the twelve-point Democrat lead slips to single digits, and here is where we stand now.

Note that I am VERY Conservative with the Republican numbers in section C and D.

At Any rate, the Times’ agenda is do keep Republicans home this November!

The NYT is out Sunday evening with a poll which gives Democrat Governor hopeful Cuomo 59% of the vote, vs. only 24% for Republican Paladino.

The results are first class crap.

If you bother to look at the internals, you will see that 58% of those polled voted for Obama in 2008, versus only 26% who say they voted for McCain – all while the  actual 2008 results show  that 36% of the popular vote in NY went for McCain. It begs the question: why did the poll under sample Republican turnout of 2008?

Furthermore, based on the fact that Obama is not on the ticket, there is smaller boon for Black voters to turnout in droves as they did in 2008. In addition the mood by Democrats is damped, while at the Republicans spirits are flying high. These anecdotes make one wonder why the Times didn’t Poll way more McCain Voters than the 36% he pulled in two years ago.

Th Public Policy Poll out today which gives Gillibrand 50% of the vote to only 40% for Joe DioGuardi is good news for Mr. DioGuardi on its face, but is is even better news for him if you consider that the poll  miscalculated voter turnout of younger people.

Only 30% of those surveyed in the poll, are age 18-45, while age 45-65 gets a whopping 46%, and the rest was people for age 65 or older.

It is reasonable to believe that people age 18-45 who lost their job; can’t find a job, and/or can’t get their business off their ground, will not sit out this election to permit Democrats in NY to have an easy home-run, nor will the younger brass of the age 18-45 go vote for Democrats. If and  ten 18-45’ers do go vote, it will not be good news for NY Democrats, such as Schumer and Gillibrand. This point is more so with thse age 30-45 who are only 23% of this poll.

In one line: 1) I doubt that those age 18-29 will be only 7% of the vote and that 30-45 will be only 23% of turnout as the poll suggests.  2) When these groups they will vote, it will be in favor of the Republicans.

In a Poll, CNN asked the following question: “Do you favor or oppose a bill in which the federal government would provide 26 billion dollars to state governments to pay for Medicaid benefits and the salaries of public school teachers or other Government workers?”

Sixty percent said they are in favor.

Well, em… sure people support Medicaid and teachers! But  how about CNN asked the question this way: “Do you favor or oppose a bill where Obama, Pelosi and Reid provide $26 billion in Federal Funds for Public Workers who support the Democrats in election drives, but may lose jobs now because they don’t wanna take a cut in their pay and benefit packages which is likely double than what you earn. Do you approve or oppose?” 

Obama’s approval rating between the general population according to a CNN Poll conducted July 16-21, is 47%. However, 93% of blacks approve of Obama’s work, almost identical to where it was a year ago – a time that 57% of the nation approved of Obama’s work.

Considering that Blacks are 13% of the population, and Obama’s high approval in that community is more of a pride thing rather than actual approving of his work (the Unemployment Rate in the Black community is sky high and things didn’t get better the last twelve months), you would want to dump as junk half of the 13 points that Blacks add to Obama’s general numbers. This leaves Obama with a real approval rating of 40.5%.

Maybe African Americans do not represent thirteen points in the poll. Perhaps more, if you figureout the fine-print of the Poll. Regardless, the point is what it is: Obama, other Dem Presidents, and Dem Presidential Candidates, get unquestionable support from the black community, regardless what the facts are, and regardless what the population in general thinks of the Dem president/candidate. EXEAMPLE: Reagan destroyed Mondale in 1984, yet 91% of the African American Community still voted for that buffoon Mondale!

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The political world today is up-in-arms with poll results from Mason-Dixon out of Nevada that placed Harry Reid with 44% of the vote, vs. only 37% that the Republican Angle gets in the poll.

If you bother looking here, you will see that the Poll surveyed 43% Dems, 40% Repubs, and 17% Indies, in a state that Dems indeed have an 8-percantge point advantage in total voter registration, yet this advantage gets cut by more than half if you count only the so-called active voters as of June 2010. In addition, we are now in an election year that Republicans are way more enthused to go out voting that are Dems. So this poll is a joke.

CNN’s political blog has today a story saying that a majority of Americans believe that President Obama is respected in the eyes of world leaders. In the third paragraph, the report reads as follows: “President Obama does fare better on that question than Bill Clinton did in 1994 or George W. Bush did after the start of the war in Iraq,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

A bell went off in my head: ‘why does CNN give me where Bush’s numbers where at his third March in office, rather than the second April in office where Obama is now?’ Well, you got it. If you check up the CNN results of Bush’s second April, u’ll see that 63% Americans believed at that time that Bush is respected by world leaders, better than Obama’s current 56%. But to CNN it doesn’t fit the narrative that the world thought of Bush as a dummy, so they focused on a date when Bush’s number where lower than Obama, and used it to show how “well received” Obama is, also a narrative of CNN.

Try next time, CNN…

A Republican, likely from the conservative wing of the Republican side of the political spectrum, will be our next President. There is a very strong chance that it will be Mike Huckabee, yet Mitt Romney also stands a good chance. I also believe that Sarah Palin should not be counted out.

Before Obama fans dump this article, and before Conservatives forward this article, scrap the first paragraph. Reason being, analyzing now who will be on top of the Presidential candidates list for ‘12, and which party has a better chance of getting elected in ’12 or in ’16, is pre-mature. Just ask Secretary of State Clinton and South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford about all this. Being now in late ’09, it is clearly too early to predict and even just discuss with relevance who will be the real players in the ’12 Presidential field. In fact, even to predict now with accuracy how many House seats the Republicans will gain or lose in a year from now, is really too early.

Sure, we can all see where trends are going regarding the mid-term election, and which Republican has currently the ear of the Republican Party. However, just as Palin came out of nowhere and shattered the cards of the Republican establishment, we cannot know now which Republican might start rising very fast and change the game, as Doug Hoffman did in NY-23. Therefore, all roundtables filled with pundits debating the ’12 candidates, are bubbling up water. Don’t waste your time on it

The  New Jersey Gubernatorial race gives the Orthodox Jewish NJ voters (or perhaps any group vote) a voice on the national political stage.

During presidential election, such states as NY and NJ are mostly in the tank for the Democrats, with comfortable margins, thus limiting the affect what Jewish voters can have on a national race. The upcoming NJ gubernatorial race is however, down to the middle, if we believe the recent polls. National political observers want to see if the Democrats, using all its star power and money, can hold on to the state. Or will the Republicans capitalize on the national 10% unemployment rate, outrages Washington bailout spending, the already increased taxes (such as on tobacco products), socialized health care, etc, to use all of them to snatch the state from the Democrats.

The vote may come down to less than a few thousand voters, again, if we believe the polls. This means that the average reader in NJ can and will affect the outcome. Therefore, if you are one of those NJ’ans, make sure to go out and vote this November third. Regardless if you want to vote for Governor Corzine because you like his tax hikes and wrecked state budget, or regardless if you want to vote for Christie become you want him to clean up NJ and in the same time send a message to Obama that the US is still a capitalist society, just go out and vote.

Don’t expect your life to change overnight, no matter who wins, but expect your vote to influence the national political debate in the coming weeks.

During the Bush years, we heard often from the Left that Bush divided the country. To me this statement didn’t make sense, because for example in 1996, President Clinton got barely half of the popular vote during his reelection campaign, while the other half voted against him. What is that if not a divided country?

Besides, if “the system” is that it is the president, and not his critics that divide the country, we should assume that President Obama is at fault for dividing the country following his unifying win of last year November. Don’t you agree?

You see, when Obama came onto the 2008 stage, a lot of people were excited for Him, including people on the right, and count me as one of them. Obama appeared as a fresh person with an open mind to political issues who is willing to work across party lines through giving up some of his own to the other side. I even donated $36 to the campaign (due to a computer mistake, the charge was 2X$36) and signed up to get e-mails from Him, but then, then His true colors came out (his radical associations, spreading the wealth mentality), and Obama lost me and millions others thus dividing the nation again along ideological lines.

Once coming into office, Obama got back the good will of a majority of voters, as reflected in opinion polls earlier this year. But then he took over huge firms (Bush bailed them out, but Obama took them over); dictating executive pay; increasing federal spending well-above the already-crazy Bush spending; apologizing for America worldwide; going soft on the Red Russians; and the list has barely started. With all this, it is no wonder that the Obama’s approval rating is down to the low-mid fifties, which means the country is divided again.

If Obama will continue down this route, He will indeed unite this nation – unite it against him.

Republicans and Democrats both want to win next week’s gubernatorial election in New Jersey. The Dems want to hold on to that seat, and of course nationally they want to show that they can win now an election, despite the public’s dissatisfaction with President Obama on economic issues. The Republicans are yearning for a big win following their ’06 and ’08 defeats, and the Independent candidate in the race is there for, em… I have no clue.

The Dems are spending millions of dollars and are bringing in all the star power they got, from former President Clinton to Obama, and ended with VP Biden, to give the Dems a win in a Dem State. So even IF the Dems keep NJ, it will be done only after pulling all the capital in their book, a thing they cannot repeat in all important ’10 races.

Wining NJ only under the above circumstances in addition to a third party candidate that helps the Dems, will confirm the Democrats’ biggest fear: ’10 is a tough year for them, as of now. In other words, the Dems might as well not spend there so much capital just to have a nice 2010 cover story, because even with a win, the writing on the wall for 2010 is for everyone to see.